<HTML><FONT  SIZE=3 PTSIZE=10>Subj:	<B> Traveller-digest V1999 #1403</FONT><FONT  SIZE=3 PTSIZE=10></B><BR>
Date:	11/26/99 8:58:50 PM Pacific Standard Time<BR>
From:	owner-traveller-digest@lists.imagiconline.com (Traveller-digest)<BR>
Sender:	owner-traveller-digest@lists.imagiconline.com<BR>
Reply-to:	traveller@lists.imagiconline.com<BR>
To:	traveller-digest@lists.imagiconline.com<BR>
</FONT><FONT  SIZE=3 PTSIZE=10><BR>
</FONT><FONT  SIZE=3 PTSIZE=10><BR>
Traveller-digest     Friday, November 26 1999     Volume 1999 : Number 1403<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
(R)1996. Traveller is a registered trademark of FarFuture Enterprises.<BR>
All rights reserved.<BR>
<BR>
The following topics are covered in this digest:<BR>
<BR>
Re: Superpowers<BR>
Re: Superpowers<BR>
early christian writings and roman rumors<BR>
Re: Superpowers<BR>
RE: Re Certification of PC's<BR>
Re: Flagships<BR>
Re: early christian writings and roman rumors<BR>
Re: Re Cold War<BR>
Re: Traveller Planetary Assaults<BR>
Re: SEC: UNCLASSIFIED Skipping & ship cost<BR>
Re: Superpowers<BR>
Re: UNCLASSIFIED Skipping & ship cost<BR>
Re: Skip Tracing<BR>
<BR>
----------------------------------------------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 18:40:02 -0800 (PST)<BR>
From: Kyle Schuant <kyle3054@yahoo.com><BR>
Subject: Re: Superpowers<BR>
<BR>
Frank Pitt wrote:<BR>
> There are not, and have never been, enough nuclear<BR>
> weapons on the planet to<BR>
> completely wipe out even a single moderate sized<BR>
> country , say France, let<BR>
> alone the entire world.<BR>
<BR>
Kyle replied:<BR>
Frank's quite right. However, I'd like to add some<BR>
points. Firstly, just one missile could ruin a<BR>
country's economy, and ultimately causes millions of<BR>
death. Picture this - just one series of warheads<BR>
(eight 250 kton on a Russian SS-21 missile) Los<BR>
Angeles flattened, 3 million people vapourised<BR>
instantly, 6 million others dead within a week, 3<BR>
million others burned and irradiated, the public<BR>
utilities all destroyed (roads, water, and so on.)<BR>
Disease strikes a week later from the millions of<BR>
corpses rotting in the streets. Most of the surviving<BR>
population of LA County becomes refugees, the<BR>
authorities suddenly need food and housing for 5<BR>
million people. Could the USA cope with this?<BR>
Undoubtedly. But it would wreck its economy, and the<BR>
troops in Kosovo would definately be coming home.<BR>
<BR>
Secondly, it's true nukes couldn't kill every person<BR>
in one big blast, but they could come damned close.<BR>
Expand the LA scenario there to "just" two largest<BR>
cities in every nation of over a million inhabitants.<BR>
This increases the number of disease and famine deaths<BR>
since nations are unable to help one another, and<BR>
barely able to help themselves. The "just one season<BR>
of nuclear winter" is pretty deadly, since it would<BR>
cause worldwide crop failure. There's plenty of food<BR>
to feed the world; but our reserves aren't that great<BR>
(we eat it as soon as we get it) and of course nations<BR>
would be keeping food to themselves; net importers of<BR>
food such as Japan would be in big trouble. All that,<BR>
even without the movie-style "breakdown of law and<BR>
order", starts pushing the fatalities pretty close to<BR>
100%...<BR>
<BR>
You can't compare the explosion of lots of nukes with<BR>
the explosion of a volcano. A volcano does not have a<BR>
3million centigrade fireball, nor deadly radiation.<BR>
Its blast is often supersonic, but it doesn't usually<BR>
explode in the middle of a city (disaster movies<BR>
notwithstanding). Also, one big bang doesn't make as<BR>
much dust (for nuclear winters) as lots of "little"<BR>
bangs. Lots of little ones cause more damage; this is<BR>
the principle of the frag grenade.<BR>
<BR>
Lastly, I'm not terribly worried exactly how many<BR>
would die. I think that the thought that human life is<BR>
not extinct would be of cold comfort to those<BR>
millions, or billions, already dead. And the<BR>
survivors, well, where would our civilisation be?<BR>
Picture an Aztec in 1450 being given a vision of his<BR>
nation's future (to, say, 1999). To say to him, "well,<BR>
Indians survived," probably wouldn't impress him much.<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
=====<BR>
KA Schuant<BR>
member: Chef's Guild International, Sporting Shooter's Assoc, Amnesty Int, Carlton Soccer Club<BR>
Melbourne<BR>
Australia<BR>
<BR>
"Duct tape is like the Force: it has a light side, a dark side, and it binds the universe together"<BR>
__________________________________________________<BR>
Do You Yahoo!?<BR>
Thousands of Stores.  Millions of Products.  All in one place.<BR>
Yahoo! Shopping: http://shopping.yahoo.com<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 20:45:06 -0600<BR>
From: "Eris Reddoch" <eris@pcola.gulf.net><BR>
Subject: Re: Superpowers<BR>
<BR>
On 11/27/99 at 03:25 PM,  "Frank Pitt" <frankie@mundens.gen.nz> said:<BR>
<BR>
>The problem with this is that given the extremely small numbers of US<BR>
>and Russian ICBM's (under 1000 for the US, and just over for the CSS)<BR>
>and even smaller numbers of Chinese ICBM's, no-one is likley to have<BR>
>enough strike capacity spare to be able to indulge in such attacks.<BR>
<BR>
MIRV, IRBM, SLBM, ALCM, and not to forget Buffalo and Bison.  Those<BR>
are my last words on this depressing subject, Frankie.<BR>
<BR>
Happy Holidays to you,<BR>
<BR>
Eris<BR>
- -- <BR>
- -----------------------------------------------------------<BR>
"Eris Reddoch" <eris@pcola.gulf.net>    using MR/2 ICE #245<BR>
- -----------------------------------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 22:00:56 EST<BR>
From: GaryBartz@aol.com<BR>
Subject: early christian writings and roman rumors<BR>
<BR>
c 320 Constantine directed government scribes to reproduce bibles at <BR>
government expense for the use of congregations. It is reasonable to assume <BR>
that said command firmed up any tendency to add or subtract writing without a <BR>
darn good reason<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
In a message dated 11/23/99 6:46:20 PM Eastern Standard Time, <BR>
owner-traveller-digest@lists.imagiconline.com writes:<BR>
<BR>
<< >This is one of the reasons that I can't personally accept Christianity<BR>
 >based on Scripture.  There was a hell of a lot of Scripture that got<BR>
 >thrown out; the Bible Christians have today was heavily edited and revised<BR>
 >by many committees hundreds of years after the death of Jesus and none of<BR>
 >the Gospels were actually written down sooner than 100-200 years after his<BR>
 >death, though they may have been transmitted orally.  And as these were<BR>
 >not primarily oral cultures, I don't particularly trust oral transmission<BR>
 >from the Jews, Greeks and Romans of that era.<BR>
 <BR>
 Bear in mind that the split which occurred during the reformation <BR>
 drove the Catholic and Othodox wings of the Church deeper into <BR>
 sacramental tradition, whereas the reformed Church focused on <BR>
 Scripture over the Sacraments. Both sides lost something...<BR>
 <BR>
 BTW I thought that Mark's Gospel was recorded somewhere around the AD <BR>
 70s/80s, before the others?<BR>
 <BR>
 Dom >><BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 22:02:48 -0500<BR>
From: "David J. Golden" <goldendj@pcisys.net><BR>
Subject: Re: Superpowers<BR>
<BR>
At 11:03 AM 11/27/99 +1300, you wrote:<BR>
>> >I'm sorry Glenn, but you're completely wrong on this one.<BR>
>> ><BR>
>> >There are not, and have never been, enough nuclear weapons on the<BR>
planet<BR>
>to<BR>
>> >completely wipe out even a single moderate sized country , say<BR>
France,<BR>
>let<BR>
>> >alone the entire world.<BR>
>> ><BR>
>>         [SINP]<BR>
>> ><BR>
>> >I suggest you actually examine the evidence in future before<BR>
repeating<BR>
>this<BR>
>> >sort of popular bull.<BR>
>> ><BR>
>> >Frankie.<BR>
>><BR>
>>         Um, could you substantiate your postition?  How many<BR>
warheads are<BR>
>> there and how many cities?<BR>
><BR>
>I don't have the appriopriate reference handy (and even those are<BR>
edcuated<BR>
>estimates as the exact figures are kept secret)  but from memory the<BR>
US <BR>
<BR>
	Blow memory--mine does. Check out www.fas.org for facts.<BR>
<BR>
- -- Chaos reigns within. <BR>
      Reflect, repent, and reboot.<BR>
   Order shall return.<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 19:11:12 -0800 (PST)<BR>
From: Kyle Schuant <kyle3054@yahoo.com><BR>
Subject: RE: Re Certification of PC's<BR>
<BR>
- --- "Trevor, Peter" <Peter.Trevor@rb.cwplc.com> wrote:<BR>
> William F. Hostman wrote:<BR>
> <snip><BR>
> <BR>
> Splonk!!!  <--- Noise  of  William's  certification <BR>
> rules  being<BR>
>                 lifted wholesale and grafted into<BR>
> MTU.<BR>
> <BR>
> I like.<BR>
> <BR>
> Of course now I run the risk of a  PC  (with  the <BR>
> initials  AJR)<BR>
> going into the engineering exam, writing "I am a<BR>
> fish" 500 times,<BR>
> and passing out.<BR>
> <BR>
Yes, but at least he had a nice timetable made up.<BR>
<BR>
=====<BR>
KA Schuant<BR>
member: Chef's Guild International, Sporting Shooter's Assoc, Amnesty Int, Carlton Soccer Club<BR>
Melbourne<BR>
Australia<BR>
<BR>
"Duct tape is like the Force: it has a light side, a dark side, and it binds the universe together"<BR>
__________________________________________________<BR>
Do You Yahoo!?<BR>
Thousands of Stores.  Millions of Products.  All in one place.<BR>
Yahoo! Shopping: http://shopping.yahoo.com<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Sat, 27 Nov 1999 04:53:39 +0100<BR>
From: Jens Rydholm <jenry023@student.liu.se><BR>
Subject: Re: Flagships<BR>
<BR>
William Barnett-Lewis wrote:<BR>
> This is from the Dec99/Jan00 issue of Air & Space magazine. It may seem OT,<BR>
> but there are a few adventure nuggets here...<BR>
<snip><BR>
<BR>
Good story, and quite useful to Traveller games.<BR>
<BR>
An interesting idea would be to put this event in a character<BR>
background. Let the event take place on a primitive (ie 1970s or<BR>
something) planet, and have the character being the one alerted by the<BR>
UFOs. Rescuing the pilot of the other UFO, he was recruited by the<BR>
visiting scouts, spotting talent and courage when they saw him enter the<BR>
spacecraft and rescue one of them.<BR>
<BR>
/Jens 'Spacejens' Rydholm<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 21:45:45 -0600<BR>
From: "Thomas Vickers" <redroach@flex.net><BR>
Subject: Re: early christian writings and roman rumors<BR>
<BR>
Lets also remember that while most of the gospels were written after Jesus<BR>
(some quickly, some a little later) all three of the synoptic (sp?) gospels<BR>
(Matthew, Mark, Luke) were written for SPECIFIC target audiences.<BR>
<BR>
One thing I learned during my "History of Judaism and the New Testiment" was<BR>
that the Newer Books of the Bible were written with specific targets in<BR>
mind.  Meaning the writers realized that selling Christianity to the Greeks<BR>
took a different hard sale than to the Romans.<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
TV<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Sat, 27 Nov 1999 17:19:45 +1300<BR>
From: "Frank Pitt" <frankie@mundens.gen.nz><BR>
Subject: Re: Re Cold War<BR>
<BR>
Firstly for all those who wanted references, a good one that provids most of<BR>
the detail I mention below is the<BR>
Federation of  American Scientists web site, start at<BR>
http://www.fas.org/nuke<BR>
<BR>
> Frankie, the number of weapons deployed was definitely enough to wipe out<BR>
> civilization as we know it. The US had at least one warhead per city of<BR>
> 50,000 persons in the Soviet Block USSR & Warsaw Pact).<BR>
<BR>
Perhaps, though I very much doubt if 20,000 odd weapons is enough to wipe<BR>
out civilization, or that there are less than 10,000 population<BR>
concentrations in the Warsaw Pact larger than 50,000 people<BR>
<BR>
But even if both are true, they didn't have the means of delivering that<BR>
number of warheads.<BR>
<BR>
> The USSR had  enough warheads for stauration of the same.<BR>
<BR>
And they had even _less_ ability to deliver them.<BR>
<BR>
In 1972 at the conclusion of the SALT I talks the USSR had just 1500 ICBMs<BR>
(and they were deploying at the rate of about 200 a year ) At the time the<BR>
US had approx 1700 ICBMs and SLBMs<BR>
<BR>
Or are you implying that the US in 1972 had less than 1500 cities containing<BR>
more than 50,000 people ?<BR>
It's possible, I don't have enough data on the US populaion distribution to<BR>
figure it out myself, but inuitively it sounds unlikley.<BR>
<BR>
> The total tonnage Per World<BR>
> Capita was 2.5KT per person on the planet (assuming a planetary Pop of 5<BR>
> Billion) [Time Magazine, 1990 or so, similar data published in Defense<BR>
> Weekly in about 87]<BR>
<BR>
This information is misleading, and does not invalidate any of my<BR>
statements.<BR>
<BR>
These figures were calculated based on the number of waheads that _might_<BR>
have been produced given the amount of weapon's grade materiel that had been<BR>
produced over the last fifty-odd years , not on the numbers of warheads<BR>
actually produced (which is still actually secret, but is likely to be much<BR>
less than the number that it was possible to produce)  It's also based on<BR>
the total production since 1944 or thereabouts, and the majority of warheads<BR>
produced prior to 1970 degraded to a useless/dangerous state within a year<BR>
or three, and had to be replaced. Therefore your statement should read  :<BR>
<BR>
The total tonnage _ever_produced_  ( including all all those test firings<BR>
and ones actually used, and all the ones that were dismantled ) when added<BR>
up, produced the figure of 2.5KT per person.<BR>
<BR>
At no time in history were there enough nuclear weapons _in_service_at<BR>
_any_one_time_ to produce this figure.<BR>
<BR>
>Since most (75%) of the worlds population lives in<BR>
> concentrations where 2.5KT could easily wipe out more than 20 persons...<BR>
<BR>
This presumes one could actually deliver "2.5KT" in such a way. Most<BR>
available weapons are in the MT range, and you can't split them into little<BR>
pieces (ignoring MIRV's for the moment, of which there only a few hundred)<BR>
<BR>
In 1990, the US had just over 7300 nuclear warheads and just over 1500<BR>
ICBMs. The USSR had less than this (the USSR has always had less thatn the<BR>
US). That implies that between them they could hit no more than 14,000 odd<BR>
targets, assuming they could somehow deliver all 14,000 to their targets.<BR>
<BR>
Prior to 1990 there were more warheads, but not _that_ many more. I can't<BR>
find the reference, but I don't think the US ever had more than 10,000<BR>
warheads at any one time, and since SALT II they never had more than about<BR>
1500 ICBMs<BR>
<BR>
> Add to that the non-nuclear armaments: Chem, Bio, and FAE, and the raw<BR>
> destructive capacity that was DEPLOYED was Mutual Assured Destruction of<BR>
> SOCIETIES.<BR>
<BR>
FAE was fairly recent, and Chem weapons are not particulalry useful.<BR>
<BR>
I agree that biologicals are far more worrying than nukes, and have a<BR>
greater chance to be able to kill large numbers of people.<BR>
Problem is that MAD was never a particulalry useful doctrine, and societies<BR>
are not species.<BR>
<BR>
However, the whole concept of MAD was one-sided, the USSR _never_ had the<BR>
capability to "MAD" the West, and was terrified of the West's insistence on<BR>
the doctrine, and thus forced to try and compete.<BR>
<BR>
In fact, "MAD" was really a tool to destroy the USSR's economy by forcing<BR>
them to spend more on their military than they could afford.<BR>
<BR>
>When you can drop a 0.5GT Warhead on EVERY production center in<BR>
> the warsaw pact, and the Warsaw Pact can do the same to N. America and<BR>
> Western Europe, that, as far as I am concerned, is enough to end the world<BR>
> as we know it.<BR>
<BR>
But not enough to "kill all life on earth ten times over" which was what I<BR>
was disputing<BR>
<BR>
I also dispute that either the US or the USSR ever actually had this<BR>
capacity, or that they ever had it combined<BR>
<BR>
I suspect generals on either side may have _claimed_ this capacity for the<BR>
opposing side, but many of the figures claimed by US military brass about<BR>
Soviet capability in order to boost their budgets, have been proven wrong<BR>
since Glasnost.  The USSR even lied about the population of Moscow, they<BR>
claimed it was much bigger than it actually was so they could claim a<BR>
"US-sized" city in the USSR.<BR>
<BR>
>And this doesn't count those 8" 2.5KT Artillery Nukes. I've<BR>
> read the US Army's FM on them (I know, I shouldn't have)... They were<BR>
field<BR>
> deployed.<BR>
<BR>
As were defensive nuclear mines in the Fulda Gap and other strategic break<BR>
through points in West Germany. The British even deployed Blue Steels to the<BR>
Mediteranean and lost at least one overboard.<BR>
<BR>
But the totals I mentioned _do_ count those.<BR>
<BR>
> Anyone who claims the Cold war was just a dream obviously slept through<BR>
the<BR>
> whole thing.<BR>
<BR>
The Cold War was not a dream. But, I repeat, at no time from that period to<BR>
now did we have the capability to "kill all life on earth ten times over" ,<BR>
and also at no time during that period was it likely that a full scale<BR>
nuclear war would eliminate the human race.<BR>
<BR>
>I've met far too many polish and russian ex-patriots, and too<BR>
> many of my US fellow citizens, who've lived in terror because they know<BR>
> just how close nuclear war really came to being. People who are aware of<BR>
> just how often DefCon 2 has been reached. People whose jobs have been to<BR>
Be<BR>
> Ready.<BR>
<BR>
Just because a lot of people _fear_ something does not make it so.<BR>
<BR>
There were\are also a lot of people living in England in 1940 who were\are<BR>
absolutely convinced that Hitler would have won the war and conquered<BR>
Britain had he launched Operation Seelowe as planned. This despite the fact<BR>
that every military scientist who examines the facts determines otherwise.<BR>
<BR>
Frankie<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 20:30:24<BR>
From: "Douglas E. Berry" <gridlore@pop.mindspring.com><BR>
Subject: Re: Traveller Planetary Assaults<BR>
<BR>
At 04:31 PM 11/26/1999 -0800, you wrote:<BR>
>>From: "Douglas E. Berry"<BR>
><gridlore@pop.mindspring.com><BR>
><BR>
>>Grabbing the downport not only gives you a nice place<BR>
>>to land the *huge* transports the Army uses (wait <BR>
>>'til y'all see these puppies!)<BR>
><BR>
>In Fifth Frontier War terms, are these the J4, 0-0-6,<BR>
>transports that can carry 600 troop factors?  (In 5FW,<BR>
>500 troop factors are in an army, 100 per corps, 20<BR>
>per division, 10 per brigade, 5 per regiment, 1 or 2<BR>
>per battalion.)<BR>
<BR>
Yep.  Each of these ships is supposed to carry one third of a combat<BR>
brigade.  They are Assault Riders, three of the carriers attaching to a<BR>
mother that has all the jump drives.  (This keeps the jump drioves at a<BR>
safe distance from any nasty surprises.)<BR>
<BR>
You need roughly five of these babies (complete set) per division.<BR>
Thirty-odd divisions per Field Army + 1 Corps.  *150* ships per AssaultRon.<BR>
<BR>
- -- <BR>
<BR>
Douglas E. Berry       gridlore@mindspring.com<BR>
http://gridlore.home.mindspring.com/index.html<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 15:27:06 PST<BR>
From: shadow@krypton.rain.com (Leonard Erickson)<BR>
Subject: Re: SEC: UNCLASSIFIED Skipping & ship cost<BR>
<BR>
In mail you write:<BR>
<BR>
> "Hughes, Michael" <Michael.Hughes@cbr.defence.gov.au> wrote:<BR>
>><BR>
>>Me:<BR>
>><BR>
>>> If a vessel has payments remaining, the vessel has<BR>
>>> to go to a Bank branch<BR>
>>> every payment date to get the running codes for the<BR>
>>ship... [etc]<BR>
>><BR>
>>Kyle Schuant:<BR>
>><BR>
>>Again, I don't quite buy it. Codes are crackable. If<BR>
>>your PCs have among them an engineer, it's going to be<BR>
>>his first priority, I'd imagine.<BR>
>><BR>
>>* * *<BR>
>><BR>
>>Me2:<BR>
>><BR>
>>Absolutely all codes are crackable.<BR>
><BR>
> That's not strictly true.<BR>
><BR>
> It is possible to devise a code with a completely random<BR>
> encription. Ie every letter uses a different key and there<BR>
> is no pattern to the sequence of keys.<BR>
><BR>
> The problems with this are:<BR>
><BR>
> a) the code book is bigger than the message (since you have<BR>
>    a substitution table for each letter.)<BR>
><BR>
> b) only people with a complete code book can use the code.<BR>
><BR>
> c) how do you transmit and secure the code book?<BR>
><BR>
> However, none of these stop this being used in the real world.<BR>
> (See under one time pad.) The simple example being a spy who<BR>
> can collect their code book from their contact.<BR>
<BR>
> In Traveller, these code books can be sent out by secured<BR>
> transport and only accessed from secure buildings.<BR>
> This doesn't stop people stealing them, but it<BR>
> stops your computer-8 guy breaking the code.<BR>
><BR>
> Now you could steal the code book, copy it and then put it back...<BR>
> That would be an interesting scenario.<BR>
<BR>
The problem is that "one-time pads" is that they are *not* suitable for<BR>
this sort of application. They work great for point to point<BR>
communications, because you only have to make sure that the two points<BR>
involved get their "pads" securely.<BR>
<BR>
But for this, EVERY SINGLE BANK BRANCH on *thousands* of worlds has to<BR>
have a copy. There's *no* way to guarantee security of the key that<BR>
way. <BR>
<BR>
Sure *we* use "one time pads" for diplomatic communications with<BR>
embassies. But each embassy has its own "key". So even if you can<BR>
intercept and copy the "key" for the embassy in Nairobi, it'll be<BR>
useless for anything but messages sent *between* Nairobi and<BR>
Washington. Only Washington has all the keys, and they're *really* well<BR>
guarded. <BR>
<BR>
But since a bank doesn't know *what* world a ship will show up at, it<BR>
has to be able to read & verify stuff at *all* the worlds it covers. <BR>
<BR>
BTW, it occurs to me that unless the ship is required to make payments<BR>
at a specific world, there's going to be *weeks* of lag time between<BR>
when they pay up and when the bank finds out about the payment. Makes<BR>
it rather hard to tell if a payment is late or not. <BR>
<BR>
- -- <BR>
Leonard Erickson (aka Shadow)<BR>
 shadow@krypton.rain.com        <--preferred<BR>
leonard@qiclab.scn.rain.com     <--last resort<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 15:42:34 PST<BR>
From: shadow@krypton.rain.com (Leonard Erickson)<BR>
Subject: Re: Superpowers<BR>
<BR>
In mail you write:<BR>
<BR>
> At 08:15 PM 11/26/1999 +1300, you wrote:<BR>
>>I'm sorry Glenn, but you're completely wrong on this one.<BR>
>><BR>
>>There are not, and have never been, enough nuclear weapons on the planet to<BR>
>>completely wipe out even a single moderate sized country , say France, let<BR>
>>alone the entire world.<BR>
>><BR>
>         [SINP]<BR>
>><BR>
>>I suggest you actually examine the evidence in future before repeating this<BR>
>>sort of popular bull.<BR>
>><BR>
>>Frankie.<BR>
><BR>
>         Um, could you substantiate your postition?  How many warheads are<BR>
> there and how many cities?<BR>
<BR>
Actually, "nuclear winter" is rather likely. But not certain.<BR>
<BR>
The key is *not* the explosive power of the bombs. It's determining how<BR>
much dust the explosion kicks up (ground and airburst differ *wildly*<BR>
on this), and what sort of smoke if produced by the fires started by<BR>
bomb flash and direct blast.<BR>
<BR>
These are all *strongly* dependent on season and worse, on targeting of<BR>
the missiles. <BR>
<BR>
Last I heard the range of answers generated by more or less reasonable<BR>
simulations ranged from "it's gonna get *really* chilly" to "yeah, we<BR>
didn't have a summmer that year and lost a lot of crops" (which<BR>
happened in 1815, due to a volcano!). <BR>
<BR>
It's also fairly certain that if either the US or the USSR had cared to<BR>
launch a suicidal first strike, they had more than enough warheads to<BR>
wipe out civilization. Especially given that once such a launch was<BR>
confirmed, the other side would cheerfully nuke any cities or<BR>
installations that the "enemy" had left. This where subs come in. Until<BR>
recently, they weren't accurate enough to take out missile silos and<BR>
the like. But they were more than accurate enough to take out cities,<BR>
factories, transport nexuses and the like. <BR>
<BR>
And the effects on anybody who *didn't* get targeted wouldn't be<BR>
pretty. <BR>
<BR>
Remember those lovely displays of "escalation" in the missile launch<BR>
displays near the end of "Wargames"? I recognized enough of them to<BR>
suspect that they were using open literature defense/offense scenarios<BR>
as the basis. They didn't *have* to exaggerate much.<BR>
<BR>
"Limited" nuclear war is possible. But nobody considers it *likely*.<BR>
It'd require someone in charge with the guts to say "We are going to be<BR>
beaten. Badly. But there's no point in taking the rest of the world<BR>
with us." Leaders like that are too rare to count on. <BR>
<BR>
- -- <BR>
Leonard Erickson (aka Shadow)<BR>
 shadow@krypton.rain.com        <--preferred<BR>
leonard@qiclab.scn.rain.com     <--last resort<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 15:56:20 PST<BR>
From: shadow@krypton.rain.com (Leonard Erickson)<BR>
Subject: Re: UNCLASSIFIED Skipping & ship cost<BR>
<BR>
In mail you write:<BR>
<BR>
> On Fri, 26 Nov 1999, Mike Smith wrote:<BR>
><BR>
>>> I don't imagine the banks loading up their 'how to prevent a skip'<BR>
>>> computer hardware/software with substandard or easily bustable<BR>
>>> codes.  That would be stoopid. Given the vast amount of monies<BR>
>>> invested, there would have to be a way to prevent skipping. And<BR>
>>> given that communication is limited to jump, and a vessel could<BR>
>>> jump anywhere, then that prevention would have to be on the ship<BR>
>>> itself.  Especially as the collateral for the loan is usually the<BR>
>>> ship itself for small time merchants.<BR>
 <BR>
>> <non-lurker mode><BR>
>> <BR>
>> Adventure idea... some rogue bank decides to extend your ship loan<BR>
>> indefinately 'cause you pissed them off by attempting to pay it faster than<BR>
>> they want you to (interest and all that)... you have to break into the<BR>
>> *bank* to get the system for recoding your ship... (hey, don't break the<BR>
>> codes, go to the source!)<BR>
>> <BR>
>> </non-lurker mode><BR>
<BR>
And if they try that, you can show *your* copy of the contract, along<BR>
with your receipts for payments made. And since such contracts get a<BR>
copy deposited with a "neutral" third party, unless the bank was able<BR>
to suborn *them*, they'd be the ones with a contract that doesn't match<BR>
the "official" copy.<BR>
<BR>
> Adventure answer:<BR>
><BR>
> PC's walk into local MOJ office..."I know where there is a nest of<BR>
> pirates...they're trying to steal _our_ ship!" and gives location of said<BR>
> rogue bank.<BR>
><BR>
> A few platoons of Imperial Auditors land and persuade said bank from ding<BR>
> that.<BR>
><BR>
> That's a DIRECT interference with interstellar trade, and the IMOJ is<BR>
> going to be _quite_ interested in them for that. <BR>
><BR>
> Of course a evil sadistic ^H^H^H^H^H good GM will allow a few NPC<BR>
> 'executives' of such a bank, who are always identified with their<BR>
> nicknames in quotes in the news stories, to get away. Now the PC's spend a<BR>
> lot of time looking over their shoulders.<BR>
<BR>
And the crew will at some point acquire a new NPC, who, unkown to the<BR>
PCs (at least at first) will be an IMOJ agent. After all, the IMOJ<BR>
wants the escapees, and if they are the sort to attempt revenge on the<BR>
PCs then detaching an agent to watch for attempts (so they can be<BR>
traced back and the "fugitives from justice" captured) is a good<BR>
investment. <BR>
<BR>
Of course, depending on the PCs involved this could be a boon or a<BR>
major handicap. Especially during the initial phase before they figure<BR>
out that Jo Shigulli is actually James Alkaloi, IMOJ!<BR>
<BR>
- -- <BR>
Leonard Erickson (aka Shadow)<BR>
 shadow@krypton.rain.com        <--preferred<BR>
leonard@qiclab.scn.rain.com     <--last resort<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 16:07:28 PST<BR>
From: shadow@krypton.rain.com (Leonard Erickson)<BR>
Subject: Re: Skip Tracing<BR>
<BR>
In mail you write:<BR>
<BR>
> shadow@krypton.rain.com (Leonard Erickson) wrote:<BR>
>><BR>
>> Also, rather than find a world with no usable metal deposits, they just<BR>
>> did sensor sweeps and any time they found a concentration of metal<BR>
>> above a certain size, they'd drop an ortillery round on it.<BR>
><BR>
> Why? Who cares? If the prisoners are alone on the world, then who<BR>
> cares what they build? besides, if future prisoners are anything like<BR>
> modern prisoners, they don't come from a highly educated background<BR>
> (one of the reasons they're criminals in the first place...). I really<BR>
> doubt that even given a gigantic hunk of pure iron ore sitting right<BR>
> out in a field that they'd get much above a stone age existance.<BR>
><BR>
> There may be some assumptions that I'm missing out on though.<BR>
<BR>
There was. This was a POW "camp". A *Naval* POW camp (Space Navy, not<BR>
Wet Navy). Let *that* sort of person start refining metals and the like<BR>
and next thing you know, they'll be shoooting down the picket ships!<BR>
<BR>
Just look at the sort of thing WWII POWs managed. Sure, they won't be<BR>
able to "extort" (or steal!) things from the guards. On the other hand,<BR>
they won't have to *hide* what they are working on. At least not any<BR>
small pieces.<BR>
<BR>
> I think the problem is that the average sci-fi writer (and Leonard)<BR>
> pictures a planet full of criminals who have the amazing breadth<BR>
> and depth of knowledge... of a science fiction writer (or Leonard).<BR>
<BR>
> I'm not saying criminals are dumb, but they've put most of their<BR>
> energy toward developing skills other than ore smelting and <BR>
> metallurgy.<BR>
<BR>
That depends. There *are* a lot of criminals with pretty high levels in<BR>
various skills. It's getting them to *co-operate* that's the problem.<BR>
<BR>
>> I think there were regular drops of vitamin mineral supplements, and<BR>
>> minimal medical supplies, too. For all the goos a plastic crate and a<BR>
>> parachute did the prisoners as "raw materials".<BR>
><BR>
> On even a semi-garden world the local flora is going to <BR>
> have more than enough of what prisoners can make use of.<BR>
<BR>
> If they're on the equivalent of a rockball, the whole premise <BR>
> breaks down for me as I don't see how the prisoners are going<BR>
> to get that whole O2-CO2 thing working.<BR>
<BR>
I once came across a story that had the prisoners more or less<BR>
"running" a prison on a rockball. They'd been given adequate<BR>
technology, just *way* out of date. Enough so that the visting ships<BR>
weren't *really* worried when they dropped off prisoners. Among other<BR>
things, they didn't have the tech for stardrives and would take a<BR>
*long* time to build spaceships.[1]<BR>
<BR>
It was a society that seemed to have a "one-strike" policy. The *stupid*<BR>
bullies tended to die rather quickly. They didn't pay attention when<BR>
told how to wear a suit properly. The cons running the place just<BR>
hauled the suit in (no point wasting air) and the body got dumped into<BR>
the "compost heap". <BR>
<BR>
The *smart* hardcases ran the place and protected any "white collar"<BR>
criminals that had useful skills. So you had an odd sort of fuedal<BR>
society. I think it could have worked, though at some point, it would<BR>
have enough of a knowledge and industrial base that they could tell the<BR>
"jailers" to quit dumping people on them, and become an "independent"<BR>
world. <BR>
<BR>
>> They managed to escape. And no, I don't remember how.<BR>
><BR>
> Must have been a load of murderous Poul Andersons & Leonard Ericksons.<BR>
<BR>
No, just your typical sneaky Naval officers and ratings doing their<BR>
duty to escape a POW camp.<BR>
<BR>
[1] Just as an example, if we find enough water and a few critical<BR>
minerals on the moon, you could set up a "Victorian" tech level colony,<BR>
and they'd be able to get by and even expand to the limit of their<BR>
resources. But it'd take a long time before they had anything more<BR>
dangerous than some guns. Nothing to worry "21st century" tech if you<BR>
take a few simple precautions and make it clear what will happen if<BR>
they do anything stupid.<BR>
<BR>
- -- <BR>
Leonard Erickson (aka Shadow)<BR>
 shadow@krypton.rain.com        <--preferred<BR>
leonard@qiclab.scn.rain.com     <--last resort<BR>
<BR>
------------------------------<BR>
<BR>
End of Traveller-digest V1999 #1403<BR>
***********************************<BR>
<BR>
To unsubscribe to Traveller-Digest, send the command:<BR>
<BR>
unsubscribe traveller-digest<BR>
<BR>
in the body of a message to "traveller-request@lists.imagiconline.com".<BR>
If you want to subscribe something other than the account the mail is<BR>
coming from, such as a local redistribution list, then append that<BR>
address to the "subscribe" command; for example, to subscribe<BR>
"local-traveller":<BR>
<BR>
subscribe traveller-digest local-traveller@your.domain.net<BR>
<BR>
A non-digest (direct mail) version of this list is also available; to<BR>
subscribe to that instead, replace all instances of "traveller-digest"<BR>
in the commands above with "traveller".<BR>
<BR>
Multi-Player Games Network http://www.mpgn.com<BR>
</XMP></FONT><FONT  COLOR="#0f0f0f" BACK="#fffffe" SIZE=3 PTSIZE=10><BR>
<BR>
----------------------- Headers --------------------------------<BR>
Return-Path: <owner-traveller@lists.imagiconline.com><BR>
Received: from  rly-yh05.mx.aol.com (rly-yh05.mail.aol.com [172.18.147.37]) by air-yh05.mail.aol.com (vx) with ESMTP; Fri, 26 Nov 1999 23:58:50 -0500<BR>
Received: from  lists.imagiconline.com (lists.imagiconline.com [204.85.32.11]) by rly-yh05.mx.aol.com (v65.4) with ESMTP; Fri, 26 Nov 1999 23:58:31 -0500<BR>
Received: from localhost (daemon@localhost)<BR>
	by lists.imagiconline.com (8.9.3/8.9.2) with SMTP id XAA21264;<BR>
	Fri, 26 Nov 1999 23:57:27 -0500 (EST)<BR>
	(envelope-from owner-traveller@lists.imagiconline.com)<BR>
Received: by lists.imagiconline.com (bulk_mailer v1.12); Fri, 26 Nov 1999 23:57:12 -0500<BR>
Received: (from majordom@localhost)<BR>
	by lists.imagiconline.com (8.9.3/8.9.2) id XAA21203<BR>
	for traveller-digest-outgoing; Fri, 26 Nov 1999 23:57:12 -0500 (EST)<BR>
	(envelope-from owner-traveller-digest@lists.imagiconline.com)<BR>
Date: Fri, 26 Nov 1999 23:57:12 -0500 (EST)<BR>
Message-Id: <199911270457.XAA21203@lists.imagiconline.com><BR>
From: owner-traveller-digest@lists.imagiconline.com (Traveller-digest)<BR>
To: traveller-digest@lists.imagiconline.com<BR>
Subject: Traveller-digest V1999 #1403<BR>
Reply-To: traveller@lists.imagiconline.com<BR>
Sender: owner-traveller-digest@lists.imagiconline.com<BR>
<BR>
</HTML>
